When
Jim Fournier asked me to come and speak at this conference, I soon
realized that I had been waiting to be here and play with a group
like this for 40 years! Some of you may even remember my electronic
democracy scenario from my 1978 book Creating Alternative Futures:
The End of Economics, which was an underground best seller
before many of you were born. My scenario of electronic democracy
was based on an article I did for an early computer magazine FORUM70 in,
yes, 1970! My article was titled "Citizens + Computers +
Communications = Community" – very similar to the vision
we are all sharing today as we consider the work of the Link Tank
and The Augmented Social Network. Naturally, I'm psyched to be here!
My
scenario back in 1970 was for enhancing the machinery of democracy
by linking the power of computers to simulate social conditions and
map dynamic complex interactive problems and issues and include feedback
from citizens (later examples include SIM CITY, DAISY WORLD and later,
SUGARSCAPE, which was a perversion – captured by economists, mathematicians
and mis-guided foundations). My scenario included voting in elections
using telephony and smart-cards (there was no internet, no PCs, no
windows, no worldwide web).
Neither was globalization an issue then – even
though the world impinged on everyone's lives – in the cold war threats
of nuclear annihilation. What I tried to envision was how US national
politics – still based on 18th Century conditions – could
be augmented to accommodate a vastly larger electorate with exploding
information requirements to help manage regional issues, watersheds
and whole ecosystems undreamed of by our country's founding fathers
and mothers. I updated these scenarios in Building a Win-Win
World, Chapter 10 "Perfecting the Machinery of Democracy (1996).How
the world has changed in the intervening 40 years!
The
cold war superpower rivalry has given way to mostly guerilla and
civil warfare, distributed terrorism by non-state actors, global
mafia, cyber attacks and hacker crime. The world now must deal
with a single neurotic military superpower waging global war on
evil, while teetering on a failing democracy, a tanking economy
and a rapidly falling currency.
Regional environmental problems
and local crises have morphed into worldwide issues of ecological
sustainability, human-caused climate change, desertification, species
extinction and ozone depletion.
Globalization of technology, markets
and $1.5 trillion of daily currency trading has eroded the sovereignty
of nation states. Driven by laissez faire market fundamentalism,
these unregulated markets have become the flywheels of ecological,
social and cultural disruption.
Democracies are both spreading and
being corrupted by money. The governance gap is becoming critical
in every part of the world. The machinery channeling feedback from
citizens lags behind accelerating social and technological change.
Both of the key feedback mechanisms from individuals to decision-makers – votes and prices are
failing. Votes and elections must be undistorted by money and prices
must include all social and environmental costs. Thus, both governments
and markets are steered perversely in unsustainable directions.
Oligopolies
and special interests have hijacked our politics. Corporations
dominate our market choices and, together with five commercial
conglomerates, own all our media, shape our choices and culture – increasingly
even on the Internet. A corrupt Federal Communications Commission
oversees the giveaway of more of the electromagnetic spectrum – a
public commons – to these media giants. And, now Microsoft, by
agreeing to license SCO's UNIX technology, seems to be trying another
sabotage attack on LINUX!
Moore's
Law is colliding with Murphy's Law as heat becomes the problem
of ever more transistors on a single chip. Even if Intel can continue
doubling transistor density for another decade, does it still matter?
Or is The Economist right in saying that the IT industry
has entered its "post-technological period"? (May 10,
2003)
Now the
Good News:
As
my dear sister Barbara Marx Hubbard has been reminding us for many
years – all these crises are forcing functions driving us toward
conscious evolution. This is the birth time of planetary human
awareness and global citizenship. The planet is our vast programmed
learning environment – which faithfully mirrors back to us all
our errors and behavioral shortcomings. As we've learned – planetary
citizenship as part of the 6-billion member human family is a cooperative
affair.
Sharing, bartering and cooperating are much better ways
for exploiting, Metcalfe's Law and Reed's Law than going head-to-head
in competition with money-based corporate players.
Information,
the World's New Currency, Isn't Scarce, as I proclaimed in Chapter
9 of Building a Win-Win World (1996). This is the
deep paradigm shift we can act on. Money and money-based institutions
and incentives hypnotize most people and institutions. Money was
necessary in the Industrial Age of material goods production. All
traditional economics is based on this material view of scarcity:
goods are often exclusionary – giving rise to ownership and property
rights, land tenure – as many of these items are scarce. As we
move deeper into the Information Age – services and information,
knowledge – even wisdom can be shared – because these valuable
assets are not scarce – they are inclusionary.
See my Beyond
Globalization (1999).The new debate is about public goods,
as economists call infrastructure: road, rail and telephone networks,
electricity grids that underpin all cities and industrial societies.
Now a global economy needs global public goods: water, health,
clean environments, peace, education and connectivity. My friend
Inge Kaul, has pioneered this debate in her Global Public
Goods (1999) and Providing Global Public Goods (2003).
Barter
is no longer primitive and inconvenient (which over 3000 years
ago led to the invention of money tokens). Today barter is high-tech.
Check out VIA3.net, which I co-founded with CEO, John Theaker,
in London and ManyOne.net, founded by Joe Firmage, on whose foundation
board I serve – both with us here! Move over AOL! E-Bay is getting
into barter – with its announcement recently of accepting frequent
flyer miles in exchange for its own "Anything Points" (worth
one penny), which can be used to buy items on e-Bay.
I have
been ridiculed by mainstream economists for recommending barter,
local scrip and credit-based exchange for as long as I can remember.
Now I'm having the last laugh as they are scrambling to understand
money-free, electronic, global and local exchanges that can match
needs, resources and productive people to fully employ communities – whenever
central banks' policies are too restrictive. Developing countries
can barter their commodities directly with each other – without needing
to earn hard foreign exchange. For instance, Venezuela exchanges
its oil by concessionary agreement with Cuba in exchange for Cuban
doctors helping build public health clinics in rural Venezuela. Very
efficient for all concerned!
To meet the needs of the world's 2 billion
people still largely outside money-economies, barter is the best
immediate answer – as Argentines have found. Many survive this way (See
Figure 1, Two Ways of Transacting) – at local second hand markets – trusting
their own local scrip more than official pesos. I have always used
the extent of barter systems as a leading indicator of dysfunctional
central banks and national economic polices. Today, we know the truth:
money-systems are about scarcity, competition and centralized control.
Barter and all forms of pure information-based exchange are about
abundance, sharing and cooperation.
This is how we can succeed in
end-running the complete commercialization and corporate exploitation
of the Internet and free up other video, radio, cable and broadcast
media. Bartering of media time, programming, bandwidth advertising
and telephony is already well established. Corporations and governments
barter over $1 trillion in goods and services annually. These modes
can undergird all our public-interest non-profit, civic society communities,
while avoiding greedy vulture capital and economic-returns obsessed
Wall Street analysts and their clients. It's good to see my friends
here who are also promoting public-interest TV and radio!
Now let
me turn to the Augmented Social Network (ASN) and the comments I
have shared with the Link Tank and the wonderful authors. I applaud
this initiative – as do my partners at VIA3.net, and our fellow board
member, e-commerce pioneer, Alan Kay, my life-partner and founder
in 1969 of Autex, Inc., the first electronic marketplace. I strongly
agree with the goals, purpose and rationale for building the ASN.
Civic
society organizations cannot afford to continue being marginalized
as big corporate players continue commercializing the Internet, balkanizing
it for profit and control. They are promoting self-serving protocols
like "opt-out" (requiring consumers to spend precious time
filling out proliferating forms) rather than "opt-in";
onerous intellectual property and copyright rules, while forcing
us to do the beta-testing of their sloppy, virus-prone software.
All these industry practices are eroding our choices, civil liberties
and access to vital information.
The IT industry grew up based on
the citizen's tax dollars that subsidized electricity and telephone
lines and created the Internet – clearly a public good, a commons,
which now also underpins the global financial system. Even traditional
neoclassical economics recognized that network-based infrastructure
industries are prone to monopoly and need public-interest regulation.
The disastrous de-regulation of electric utilities in California
was a triumph of ideology over common sense.
We are learning the same
lessons with privatization of water systems. In an early tech journal, OMNI,
I predicted the same lesson would be learned with the now 30-year
experiment in airline deregulation. These vital network industries
are generally too capital and labor intensive to be profitable without
myriad subsidies and government concessions. Today, we are back to
a few large airlines – most of them in bankruptcy – surviving on
over $15 billion of taxpayer handouts – while squeezing their employees.
Smaller latecomers pick up market share by cost and service-cutting – subsidized
by the existing infrastructure. All this while some half of our citizens
has never flown in a plane and Congress is running down our affordable,
energy-efficient rail networks, which receive a fraction of the subsidies
airlines are given.
Neoclassical economists with their static myopic
forms of equilibrium analysis still warn against industrial policies – used
by many developing countries to subsidize vital or infant industries.
Yet all the early industrializer countries, including the UK and
the USA, used such policies to build their infrastructure
and key industries. The issue is rather, which networks and
infrastructures to subsidize. Today, education is a key public investment,
as is health – since healthy, knowledgeable citizens are the
wealth of nations in an Information Age. Yet, these two vital investments
in human capital are still "expensed" in our GNP rather
than being carried as investments in the new asset accounts I have
advocated for GNP. All this is also why connectivity and media are
public goods – indispensable for democracy – as our Founders knew.
I have long advocated corrections to these GNP/GDP national accounts (See
Figure 2 "GNP Problems" and Figure 3 "Total Production" Cake).
This is why I co-created with the Calvert Group, the Calvert-Henderson
Quality of Life Indicators (see Figure 4) (updated
at www.calvert-henderson.com, click on FOREWORD for my May update).
The
USA still has three major industrial policies subsidizing: (1) the
military defense industry (2) the fossil fuel and energy sectors
and (3) the IT and Internet-based industry. Agriculture is also subsidized
in the most inefficient way possible. The US State Department reinforces
the prevailing US policy of not taxing e-commerce by urging other
governments to keep their regulatory and tax authorities off this
sector. In fact, the whole pattern of perverse subsidies, including
those to medical intervention rather than disease prevention, reflects
the obsolete structures of early-stage industrialism.
We know now
that this favored tax-free treatment together with government subsidies
also helped fuel the "dot com" bubble. This additional
subsidy may well have been justified initially. But, it also contributed
to huge tax losses that led a majority of our states into the huge
budget deficits they face today. While many states suffer from the
wave of tax-cutting fervor still gripping our country – many revenue
shortfalls were caused by the competition to local "bricks and
mortar" companies from untaxed e-commerce. Today, state governors
are still trying to figure out how to pay for schools, police, fire-fighters
and social services once adequately-funded by local sales taxes.
All
this is why I often teased those early arrogant cyber-libertarians
about their actual reliance on the government they despised! Another
point I and others made in the late 1990s was that the "new
economy" bubble was built on $10 a barrel oil – a short-lived
anomaly. Much "new economy" hype was based on a misunderstanding
that cyberspace industries could be "resource lite" (as
Enron's Jeffrey Skilling proclaimed). We now relearned that you can't
divorce industries from their base in real world natural resources.
Paper and virtual asset-shuffling, like other pyramid schemes, fall
to earth sooner or later. And just try filling up your car with a
tank-full of virtual gasoline!
This background understanding is the
rationale for a properly regulated and taxed IT sector – with much
greater effort to break up monopolies, whether Microsoft or the cross-owning
corporate monopolies like NBC, Clear Channel, VIACOM, Disney, News
Corp and AOL Time Warner now dominating our mass media. Today, we
all live in "mediocracies." Some may be democracies, some
still feudal, some dictatorships or even failed states – but all
are mediocracies. The race to capture all of humanity's eyeballs
continues unabated – leading to what I named in "Building
a Win-Win World (1996) the new "Attention Economies."
Emerging
Attention Economies are post-industrial and part of the information
age. As corporations, politicians, advertisers, academia and other
institutions vie for our attention with increasing information-overload,
our time, attention and privacy become more precious – as valuable
as money (see Figure 5 "New Attention Economy").
Twenty-eight percent of US adults now value their time more highly
than additional money income. They have moved out of "the rat-race" and
into less-pressure jobs and rural towns where community life is still
valued, the air and water are cleaner so as to improve their overall
quality of life. They and their local officials belong to the International
Conference of Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI), based in Toronto
and promote local quality of life indicators. (www.iclei.org).
These
trendsetters are reminiscent of Paul Ray's "cultural creatives." They
reject the corporate and advertisers' view of consumer lifestyles.
They seek deeper purpose, values and spirituality. They join civic
society causes and groups trying to create a better future for all
humanity. They have created the $2.3 trillion market of socially
responsible investors, asset managers and cleaner, greener, more
ethical companies. They pioneered the open-source movement, the copyleft
initiative now being adopted by anti-TRIPS campaigners against GM
foods and pharmaceutical patent protocols of the WTO. They are environmentalists,
feminists, solar and renewable energy pioneers, fitness buffs and
organic farmers, health foods store owners, vegetarians, human rights
activists and of course – all of you – working to decentralize mass
media and keep the internet an open public commons for connecting
global civic society. I have created a new TV series for us, "Ethical
Marketplace" and its website – so we can all watch a regular
financial show that reflects our values, the LOHAS marketplace – and
follows all the new "triple-bottom-line" and quality of
life indicators as well. Our promo video is here.
As the IT sector
matures, it continues to morph from hardware to software and services
and is being absorbed by other older sectors and the whole society.
Just as the automobile industry shook out from 274 companies in 1909
to today's few giants, we are seeing the IT sector consolidate. The
Gartner Group tells us that by 2004 half the vendors in 2000 will
have disappeared. Even industry optimist Larry Ellison says that
there are at least 1000 Silicon Valley companies that need to go
bankrupt.
Where does this continuing restructuring provide niches
for civic society providers? How can we all align our community-building
service enterprises synergistically – without blurring our diverse "cultural
DNA" and still serve our special constituencies? How can we
share and barter our intellectual assets, human resources and enterprise
models to best take advantage of Reed's Law? I believe it is utopian – and
a misreading of human nature to imagine that we can take down all
our walls. I am a pretty good networker – but I cringe at the idea
of too many people and too much interactivity – even among those
I trust, admire and know I can cooperate with to create great new
ideas, strategies and win-win planetary initiatives.
A key issue I
raised was that of time. For example, even if ASN's great
introduction system including customized brokering – produces an
exciting person that could be a win-win match for one of my key projects – I
still might have to say "not now!" Perhaps I'm on a deadline
for an article – or maxed out with an urgent project. I could store
the intro-bot's introduction for later – but by then – the other person
might also say "not now!" We are up against the human condition
of being incarnated on the material plane, where we must observe
the rules of thermodynamics, the needs of our bodies and the time-spans
of our lives. I need to drop out into my own spiritual space – every
day. I don't own a cell phone and can't image anything worse than
WIFI! I love my garden, the beach and the texture of daily life.
Am I a Luddite? Maybe!
Another issue for me is how we create the "doors" between
our e-communities – or as I prefer to call them "permeable membranes" whereby
cells recognize the chemical catalysts they need and let them through.
This means establishing a robust, specific, highly-differentiated
cultural DNA based on the group's core values. These must be distilled
into a set of well-articulated principles, operating procedures and
interaction protocols. Flying this identity flag is a community's
high-fidelity bird-call! I've been doing this all my life – in writing
and speaking, communicating on TV, radio, my websites – or in personal
conversations. These kinds of high-fidelity bird calls repel most
people and attract only those soul brothers and sisters with whom
I want to play or share aspects of my life.
Commercial marketers reduce
this kind of deep, values-based communication of one's highest purpose
and goals as market positioning! Well, in a way they have a point!
When we were designing the vision, mission, goals, principles and
operating protocols for VIA3.net, all this had to be distilled into
a statement of great clarity. For example, VIA3.net and ManyOne.net
share a similar core mission: to serve non-profit groups who are
working for a better world for all – by facilitating their barter,
exchanges and information sharing to conserve their limited cash
and helping steer donated resources toward their projects. Both ManyOne
and VIA3 chose to sign the Earth Charter and make its 16 principles
the basis of our respective enterprises (www.earthcharter.org).How
do you make sure that all aspects of your operation: from its method
of funding and capitalization to all of its relationships with its
membership – are in integrity with your vision, mission and goals.
New shareholder agreements, such as Alan Kay designed for VIA3 are
helpful. How to design cooperative ways of aligning similarly designed
organizations to minimize bureaucracy, while allowing synergistic
division of labor and decentralized autonomy?
The ASN has grasped
this nettle and moved us all toward deeper modes of cooperation and
sharing. Deeper platforms based on open-source and collectively-agreed
standards can help us all harvest the exponential synergies
that are possible. The excitement is that we are engaged in
the practice of conscious evolution – and we are learning to let
go of old mental models, memes, cultural "disks" and "tapes" that
served our biological needs historically – but have now become baggage.
I think of aggression and territoriality, which kept species spaced
out. The "baby program" running in women, also needs re-examination
now there are 6 billion humans consuming 40% of the planet's primary
biomass production! Competition is essential – balanced by systemic
cooperation to steer its energy – and creativity!
Some additional
elements I offered to ASN's blueprint include:
More
user-inputMore socio-political thinking and strategy – for example
from seasoned community organizers and political coalition-builders –whose
methods of aligning groups around specific activities and campaigns
are analogous to communities of practice.
More interaction with
global issue networkers, which would contextualize and concretize
the plan. This could also correct ASN's gender imbalance – since
women lead many of these global networks and will be prime users
of ASN.A budget and business plan!
Involve more friendly UN people
from ILO, UNDP, WHO and UNICEF who share our concerns – particularly
on digital divide issues. I just participated in a global UN-based
video conference on World Opinion – which surely is the next superpower!
Spell
out likely relationships between ASN and other formal and quasi-formal
technical bodies (e.g., I-CANN), as well as to governments, tax
authorities and UN-affiliated agencies ITU, WIPO and the WTO's
TRIPS convention. I'll help you make a system map of all these
players.
Join
with the Prep Com process for the upcoming UN World Summit on the
Information Society. This is just as important as having representatives
on the various technical standards bodies. Next meeting in Geneva,
December 5-12, 2003. (www.geneva2003.org)
Remember
that the Internet and the Worldwide Web can't do it alone. It's not
enough for SRI and LOHAS providers to hire PR firms to get them sound
bites on CNBC. We must own our own space and cooperative enterprises
like Worldlink, Globalvision and Ethical Marketplace TV. We must
re-capture space from all the other media: radio, TV, broadcast,
cable and video conferencing. All are important – reach different
audiences and work synergistically. That's why I do radio constantly
and produce TV programs – hard as it is to get carriage in the USA.
Never mind, my newspaper columns reach 400 newspapers in 27 languages
and I get all the coverage I need in Brasil, Europe, China and around
the world. The world is more important than any superpower!
In the planetary context, all our individual self-interests are identical:
surviving and thriving in just, peaceful, sustainable societies.
To reach these shared goals, sharing, cooperation and earth ethics
have simply become pragmatic. Thank you for all your good works.